Carlos Manuel Ferreira dos Santos (B21B-EE12-A3EC)

Curriculum Vitae

Carlos Manuel Ferreira dos Santos

Carlos Santos has obtained his Habilitation for Full Professorship (Agregação) in Econometrics, at the Rectorship of the Portuguese Catholic University, in 2013. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oxford (2006), having worked under the supervision of Professor David F. Hendry. He concluded his undergraduate studies in Economics in 1999, at the University of Porto, with a final mark of 17 ou of 20 (the best among 237 candidates). Currently, he is an Associate Professor (w/ Habilitation) at the University of Maia. He has previously lectured at the Portuguese Catholic University and at Oxford University. He is also a Researcher at NECE-UBI (Research Center in Business Sciences, University of Beira Interior). He has also colaborated with CeBER (Research Centre in Business and Economics - Univ. of Coimbra) and with UNICES (Research Unit in Business Sciences and Sustainability - University of Maia). In the past, we was a a Graduate Visitor at the European Central Bank, DG-Research, where he worked with Andreas Bayer,. He has published numerous scientific papers in international quality journals. His research is mainly focused on Finance, Econometrics, Machine Learning and Macro- Financial Linkages. In 2022, he went back to Oxford, to work on the Statistical Theory of Machine Learning under the guidance of Professor Max Kasy. He has been a part of nationally (FCT) and internationally (ESRC, UK) financed research teams. He has delivered seminars in various universities, and has been the receiver of several awards and distinctions, most noticeably the Sir John Hicks Scholarship from Oxford University (2004 & 2005).

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Identification

Personal identification

Full name: Carlos Manuel Ferreira dos Santos

Citation names

Santos, Carlos
Santos, C.

Author identifiers

Ciência ID: B21B-EE12-A3EC
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5100-0794

Email addresses

cmsantos@ismai.pt (Professional)

Knowledge fields

Social Sciences - Economics and Business - Econometrics

Languages

Language	Speaking	Reading	Writing	Listening
English	Advanced (C1)	Advanced (C1)	Advanced (C1)	Advanced (C1)
French	Intermediate (B1)	Advanced (C1)	Intermediate (B1)	Intermediate (B1)
Spanish; Castilian	Advanced (C1)	Advanced (C1)	Intermediate (B1)	Advanced (C1)

Education

	Degree	Classification
2013/02/04 Concluded	Provas Públicas de Agregação (Título de Agregado) Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Portugal	Aprovado
2006/06 Concluded	D.Phil. in Economics (Doutoramento) University of Oxford, United Kingdom "Structural Breaks and Outliers in Economic Time Series" (THESIS/DISSERTATION)	Distinction
2003 Concluded	M.Phil. in Economics (Mestrado) University of Oxford, United Kingdom "Statistical Inference in Econometric Models with Indicator Variables" (THESIS/DISSERTATION)	Distinction
1999/07 Concluded	Economia (Licenciatura) Universidade do Porto Faculdade de Economia, Portugal	17 valores

Affiliation

Science

	Category Host institution	Employer
2023/07/03 - Current	Researcher (Research)	Universidade da Beira Interior Núcleo de Estudos em Ciências Empresariais, Portugal

2017/06/01 - Current	Researcher (Research)	Universidade de Coimbra, Portugal
	Universidade de Coimbra Centro de Investigação em Economia e Gestão, Portugal

Teaching in Higher Education

	Category Host institution	Employer
2019/03/01 - Current	Associate Professor (University Teacher)	Universidade da Maia Departamento de Ciências Empresariais, Portugal

2017/02 - 2019/02/28	Assistant Professor (University Teacher)	Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal

2006/09 - 2016/11	Assistant Professor (University Teacher)	Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal

2003 - 2006	Invited Assistant (University Teacher)	University of Oxford Department of Economics, United Kingdom

1999 - 2001	Trainee Assistant (University Teacher)	Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal

Projects

Contract

	Designation	Funders
2023/03/01 - 2024/08/29	The Diagnosis Network App (DiNA): Development of a computational system for the diagnosis of DSM-5 mental disorders based on complex networks 2022.07384.PTDC Researcher Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal	Ongoing
2007/01/01 - 2009/12/31	Social welfare, immigrant population and labour market exclusion info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/81882/PT Researcher Universidade Católica Portuguesa Centro de Estudos de Gestão e Economia, Portugal	Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia Concluded
2005/10/01 - 2006/09/30	Model Selection and Forecasting with Structural Breaks RES 051270035 Research Fellow University of Oxford Department of Economics, United Kingdom	Economic and Social Research Council Concluded

Outputs

Publications

Book chapter	Hendry, David F.; Santos, Carlos. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity". In Volatility and Time Series Econometrics*, edited by Bollerslev, T.; Russell, J.; Watson, M., 164-193. Oxford University Press, 2010. 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199549498.003.0009
Conference paper	Santos, Carlos; Oliveira, M. A.. "Sovereign CDS contagion in the European Union: A Multivariate GARCH with variables analysis of volatility spill-overs". Paper presented in 27th Business Research Conference, Toronto, 2014. Published Santos, Carlos; Oliveira, M. A.. "An Overlapping Generations Model of the Savings Rate Decline: The Case of Portugal". Paper presented in World Business and Social Science Research Conference, Bangkok, 2013. Published Carlos Santos; Maria Alberta Oliveira; João Coelho. "The Budgeting of Portuguese Public Museums: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach". Paper presented in World Business and Economics Research Conference, Auckland, 2012. Published • 10.2139/ssrn.2185135
Journal article	Jorge Marques; Carlos Santos; Maria Alberta Oliveira. "A Quest for Innovation Drivers with Autometrics: Do These Differ Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic for European Economies?". Economies (2025): https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040110. 10.3390/economies13040110 Viviana Costa; Maria Alberta Oliveira; Carlos Santos. "Assessing the Pandemic Aviation Crisis: Speculative Behavior, Government Bail Outs, and Accommodative Monetary Policy". Economies (2024): https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12100258. 10.3390/economies12100258 Maria Alberta Oliveira; Carlos Santos. "Unveiling trading patterns: iTraxx Europe financials from the great financial crisis to ECB monetary easing". Banks and Bank Systems (2022): https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.17(3).2022.16. 10.21511/bbs.17(3).2022.16 Oliveira, M. A.; Santos, Carlos. "Determinants of credit default swaps implied ratings during the crisis: was sovereign risk mispriced?". Investment Management and Financial Innovations 15 3 (2018): 1-14. https://doi.org/10.21511%2Fimfi.15%283%29.2018.01. 10.21511/imfi.15(3).2018.01 Santos, Carlos; Oliveira, M. A.. "A volatility-based approach to gold as a safe haven: can it explain the abnormalities in gold returns during periods of extreme financial adversity?". Investment Management and Financial Innovations 13 3(1) (2016): 203-214. https://doi.org/10.21511%2Fimfi.13%283-1%29.2016.06. 10.21511/imfi.13(3-1).2016.06 Oliveira, M. A.; Santos, Carlos. "Market exuberance in sovereign credit default swaps: Assessing the EU regulatory framework and trading profit opportunities". Investment Management and Financial Innovations 12 4 (2015): 70-80. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84955438772&partnerID=MN8TOARS. Santos, Carlos; Oliveira, Maria Alberta; Coelho, João. "The Budgeting of Portuguese Public Museums: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach". World Review of Business Research 3 3 (2013): 145-156. Published Santos, Carlos. "The Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: Determinants of Default Probabilities and Implied Ratings in the CDS Market: An Econometric Analysis". Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance 2 1 (2011): 53-61. https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jasf/article/view/46. Published Santos, C.; Oliveira, M.A.. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modeling". Applied Economics 42 12 (2010): 1577-1589. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-77952341377&partnerID=MN8TOARS. 10.1080/00036840701721521 Oliveira, M.A.; Santos, C.. "Looking for a change point in French monetary policy in the early eighties". Applied Economics Letters 17 4 (2010): 387-392. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-76749129274&partnerID=MN8TOARS. 10.1080/13504850701735898 Santos, C.. "Impulse saturation break tests". Economics Letters 98 2 (2008): 136-143. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-37549043491&partnerID=MN8TOARS. 10.1016/j.econlet.2007.04.021 Hendry, D.F.; Johansen, S.; Santos, C.. "Erratum: Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression". Computational Statistics 23 2 (2008): 337-339. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-42149157786&partnerID=MN8TOARS. 10.1007/s00180-008-0112-1 Santos, C.; Hendry, D.F.; Johansen, S.. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression". Computational Statistics 23 2 (2008): 317-335. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-42149138564&partnerID=MN8TOARS. 10.1007/s00180-007-0054-z Santos, C.. "A pitfall in joint stationarity, weak exogeneity and autoregressive distributed lag models". Economics Bulletin 3 53 (2007): http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-36749095584&partnerID=MN8TOARS. Santos, Carlos; Oliveira, M. A.. "Modelling the German Yield Curve and Testing the Lucas Critique: 1975-2001". Applied Econometrics and International Development 7 1 (2007): 51-62. http://www.usc.es/economet/aeid.htm#Vol7-1. Published Santos, Carlos; Hendry, D.F.. "Saturation in Autoregressive Models". Notas Económicas 24 (2006): 8-19. https://www.uc.pt/feuc/notas-economicas/artigos/pdf/ne024n0177. Open access • Published Hendry, D.F.; Santos, C.. "Regression models with data-based indicator variables". Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 67 5 (2005): 571-595. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-26944446963&partnerID=MN8TOARS. 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2005.00132.x Oliveira, M.A.; Santos, C.. "Assessing school efficiency in Portugal using FDH and bootstrapping". Applied Economics 37 8 (2005): 957-968. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-18844409385&partnerID=MN8TOARS. 10.1080/00036840500061095

Activities

Supervision

	Thesis Title Role	Degree Subject (Type) Institution / Organization
2022/10/01 - 2023/09/20	Sustainable Finance: Retornos Sustentáveis vs. Retornos Tradicionais Supervisor	Mestrado em Gestão de Empresas (Master) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2023/02/15 - 2023/06/20	Relatório de Estágio: Covet Group Supervisor	Gestão de Marketing (Degree) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2021/10/01 - 2022/10/01	Instrumentos Financeiros e sua Volatilidade Supervisor	Mestrado em Gestão de Empresas (Master) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2020/10/01 - 2021/09/20	Restauração em tempos de Pandemia: A importância das plataformas de entrega de refeições ao domicílio Supervisor	Mestrado em Marketing (Master) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2020/10/01 - 2021/09/20	Estratégias de Pricing, comportamento do consumidor e compras por impulso Supervisor	Mestrado em Marketing (Master) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2020/10/01 - 2021/07/02	Reação dos Mercados Financeiros à Crise Pandémica do Covid 19 Supervisor	Mestrado em Gestão de Empresas (Master) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2020/10/01 - 2021/06/20	Impacto Financeiro do Covid-19: análise dos spreads de CDS na aviação Supervisor	Mestrado em Gestão de Empresas (Master) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2019/10/01 - 2020/09/20	Turismo de Cruzeiros e Inovação de Modelos de Negócio (Fly-cruise): Enquadramento de Stakeholders e Comunicação B2B no caso do binómio Aeroporto Francisco Sá Carneiro/Terminal de Leixões Supervisor	Mestrado em Gestão de Empresas (Master) Instituto Universitário da Maia, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	The Bail-In Enforcement: Application of the Resolution Tool do Banco Espírito Santo Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	Proibição de Naked Sovereign CDS: liquidez e aversão ao risco Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	A Estrutura Temporal dos CDS: Modelização e Análise Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	Relação entre Liquidez e Risco de Mercado: o paradoxo do ouro Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	Euribor Evolution and Risk on Bank’s Assets Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	CDS Bancários, Bail-In e Protecção Obrigacionista Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	Trading of Credit Indices – Behaviour Analysis Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	A atuação das Farmácias, Parafarmácias e Grandes Superfícies na Venda de Medicamentos Supervisor	Mestrado em Gestão (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2015/10/01 - 2016/03/05	Percepções do Consumidor sobre a estratégia de preços do Modelo Continente Hipermercados Supervisor	Mestrado em Marketing (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2014/10/01 - 2015/03/05	Clarifying What is a Safe Haven: an application to the Gold market Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2014/10/01 - 2015/03/05	Contágio Centro-Periferia na Crise da Zona Euro, no mercado de Credit Default Swaps: uma análise DCC-MGARCH Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2014/10/01 - 2015/03/05	Are IPOs underpriced: Testing for Bubbles in IPOs – An empirical analysis? Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2014/10/01 - 2015/03/05	Regulating Sovereign Credit Default Swaps Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2014/10/01 - 2015/03/05	Risco Soberano e Consequências do Bail In Cipriota: Análise 1 ano e meio depois Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2014/10/01 - 2015/03/05	Análise e Previsão de Bolhas Especulativas Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2013/10/01 - 2014/03/05	A decomposição do risco no mercado de Credit Default Swaps Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2013/10/01 - 2014/03/05	O comportamento do mercado de Credit Default Swaps no contexto de um processo de reestruturação de dívida: o caso de Chipre Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2013/10/01 - 2014/03/05	China Goes Global: Investimento Externo, Fusões e Aquisições –Tendências e Motivações do (a)braço corporativo da geopolítica chinesa no sector da Energia & Utilites Supervisor	Mestrado em Gestão (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2012/10/01 - 2013/03/05	Validade dos Ratings Implícitos nos Mercados de CDS sobre Dívida Soberana Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2009/10/01 - 2010/03/05	A Eficiência na Regulação do Fornecimento de Eletricidade Supervisor	Mestrado em Economia (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2007/10/01 - 2009/03/05	BiPower Variation and Realized Volatility: An Empirical Assessment of the Efficient Market Hypothesis Supervisor	Mestrado em Finanças (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2007/10/01 - 2009/03/05	A Sobrevivência de Empresas Micro Financiadas Supervisor	Mestrado em Economia (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal
2006/10/01 - 2008/03/05	A Orçamentação dos Museus Públicos Portugueses Supervisor	Mestrado em Economia (Master) Universidade Católica Portuguesa Católica Porto Business School, Portugal

Distinctions

Award

2014	Best Paper Award in Banking and Finance World Business Institute, Australia
1999	Award for the best student completing the Economics degree in 1999 at FEP Banco de Portugal, Portugal
1999	Award for the student with highest mark in the Economics degree with completion in 1999 at FEP Fundação Engenheiro António de Almeida, Portugal
1998	Best student at Faculdade de Economia do Porto Universidade do Porto, Portugal

Title

2004	John Hicks Scholar University of Oxford, United Kingdom