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Gustavo Soutinho is an academic and researcher specializing in applied mathematics and biostatistics. He earned his Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from the Faculty of Sciences at the University of Porto (FCUP), focusing on multi-state models, transition probabilities, and joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data. He also held a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from FCUP and a master's in Statistics from the University of Minho. He also completed a postgraduate program in Information Systems at the same institution. Since 2016, Soutinho has taught at various higher education institutions, including the Institute of Biomedical Sciences Abel Salazar (ICBAS), the University of Minho, and the Polytechnic Institute of Cávado and Ave. Currently, he is Assistant Professor the University Portucalense and invited Professor at ISEP - Porto School of Engineering He also served as a researcher at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto (FEP) and the Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP). His professional experience includes roles at the National Institute of Statistics (INE), BOSCH Car Multimedia Portugal, and hospitals in Guimarães.
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Identification

Personal identification

Full name
Gustavo Soutinho

Citation names

  • Soutinho, Gustavo

Author identifiers

Ciência ID
0918-604C-2C04
ORCID iD
0000-0002-0559-1327
Researcher Id
GSE-1063-2022
Scopus Author Id
57195326662

Email addresses

  • gustavo.soutinho@upt.pt (Professional)

Knowledge fields

  • Exact Sciences - Mathematics - Statistics and Probability

Languages

Language Speaking Reading Writing Listening Peer-review
Portuguese (Mother tongue)
English Advanced (C1) Advanced (C1) Advanced (C1) Advanced (C1) Advanced (C1)
Education
Degree Classification
2022/10 - 2024/03
Concluded
 Econometria e Estatística (Pós-doutoramento)
Universidade do Porto Faculdade de Economia, Portugal
2018 - 2022
Concluded
 Matemática Aplicada (Doutoramento)
Major in Estatística e Probabilidades
Universidade do Porto Faculdade de Ciências, Portugal
"Statistical analysis of complex survival data: new contributions in statistical inference, software development and biomedical applications " (THESIS/DISSERTATION)
 Aprovado
2014
Concluded
 Estatística (Mestrado)
Major in Sem especialização
Universidade do Minho, Portugal
"Estimação do Uso e Ocupação do Solo ao Nível das NUTS 2 e NUTS 3" (THESIS/DISSERTATION)
 18
2006
Concluded
 Pós-Graduação em Sistemas de Informação (Pós-Graduação)
Universidade do Minho, Portugal
 16
2003
Concluded
 Licenciatura em Matemática - Ramo Educacional (Licenciatura)
Universidade do Porto Faculdade de Ciências, Portugal
 14
Affiliation

Teaching in Higher Education

Category
Host institution 		Employer
2026/02 - Current Invited Adjunct Teacher (Polytechnic Teacher) Instituto Politécnico do Porto Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Portugal
2024/04/01 - Current Assistant Professor (University Teacher) Universidade Portucalense Infante Dom Henrique, Portugal
2024/09/01 - 2025/08/31 Invited Assistant Professor (University Teacher) Universidade do Minho, Portugal
2023/02 - 2023/07 Invited Assistant Professor (University Teacher) Universidade do Porto Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas Abel Salazar, Portugal
2018/09 - 2022/09 Invited Assistant (Polytechnic Teacher) Instituto Politécnico do Cávado e do Ave, Portugal
2016/09 - 2017/04 Invited Assistant (University Teacher) Universidade do Minho, Portugal
Projects

Grant

Designation Funders
2022/04 - 2022/09 3SNFODEMIC - Procurar, selecionar e difundir informação: as três componentes de uma infodemia
EXPL/COM-OUT/1572/2021
Master Student Fellow
Universidade do Porto Instituto de Saúde Pública, Portugal
2018/06 - 2022/04 Doutoramento em Matemática Aplicada
PD/BD/142887/2018
PhD Student Fellow
Universidade do Porto Faculdade de Ciências, Portugal
Concluded
2016/04 - 2017/09 iFACTORY – Novas Capacidades de Industrialização
POCI-01-0247-FEDER-002814
Research Fellow
Universidade do Minho Centro ALGORITMI, Portugal
Concluded
2014/10 - 2016/04 Land Use/ Cover Area Frame Statistical Survey (LUCAS)
BGCT/INE/DMSI/ME/2014
Science and Technology Management Fellow
Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Portugal
Concluded
2014/04 - 2014/09 Modelação Conjunta de Dados Multivariados Longitudinais e de Sobrevivência
EXPL/MAT-STA/0313/2013
Research Fellow
Universidade do Minho Centro de Matemática, Portugal
Concluded

Contract

Designation Funders
2025/01/01 - Current Complex Time-to-Event Analysis: Multistate Models and Cohort-Based Studies
2023.14897.PEX
Post-doc
Ongoing
2025/01/01 - 2029/12/31 REMIT - Investigação em Economia, Gestão e Tecnologias da Informação
UID/05105/2025
10.54499/UID/05105/2025
Universidade Portucalense Infante Dom Henrique, Portugal
 Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Ongoing
2021/01/01 - 2025/12/31 Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e translacional em Saúde Populacional
LA/P/0064/2020
10.54499/LA/P/0064/2020
Universidade do Porto Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas Abel Salazar, Portugal

Universidade do Porto Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia, Portugal

Universidade do Porto Centro de Investigação em Actividade Física Saúde e Lazer, Portugal

Universidade do Porto Unidade Multidisciplinar de Investigação Biomédica, Portugal

Universidade do Porto Faculdade de Desporto, Portugal

Universidade do Porto Instituto de Saúde Pública, Portugal
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Concluded
2020/01/01 - 2024/12/31 Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia - Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto
10.54499/UIDB/04750/2020
Universidade do Porto Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia, Portugal

Universidade do Porto Instituto de Saúde Pública, Portugal
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Concluded
2022/10 - 2024/03 MLDLCOV - Impacto das medidas de confinamento relativas ao COVID-19 sobre mobilidade, poluição do ar, saúde e indicadores macroeconómicos em Portugal: uma abordagem em Aprendizado de Máquina
DSAIPA/CS/0086/2020
Researcher
Universidade do Porto Centro de Economia e Finanças, Portugal
Concluded
Outputs

Publications

Book
  1. Machado, Luís Meira; Soutinho, Gustavo Domingos Costa Coelho. Proceedings of the 34th international workshop on statistical modelling. Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). 2019.
  2. Machado, Luís Meira; Soutinho, Gustavo Domingos Costa Coelho. Proceedings of the 34th international workshop on statistical modelling volume II. 2019.
Book chapter
  1. da Silva, Emanuel Vieira Monteiro; Machado, Luís Filipe Meira; da Costa Coelho Soutinho, Gustavo Domingos. "Survapp: A Shiny Application for Survival Data Analysis". In Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 113-125. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025.
    10.1007/978-3-031-68949-9_9
  2. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Imputation of the Response Variable in Survival Analysis with Interval-Censored Data". 2025.
    10.1007/978-3-031-97663-6_6
  3. Marta Azevedo; Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Beyond Kaplan-Meier: A Comprehensive R Package for Interval-Censored Survival Analysis Using Turnbull’s Approach". 2025.
    10.1007/978-3-031-97663-6_5
  4. Paula Lopes; Pedro Campos; Luís Meira-Machado; Gustavo Soutinho. "Survival Analysis of Organizational Network – An Exploratory Study". 2023.
    10.1007/978-3-031-37129-5_10
Conference abstract
  1. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado; Azevedo, Marta. "Estimation of the bivariate distribution function for interval censored data". Paper presented in XXVI Congresso da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística (SPE), 2025.
  2. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado. "XGBoost-Based vs. AFT Model Imputation: Addressing Interval Censoring in Time-to-Event Data". Paper presented in 23rd International Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics (ICNAAM 2025), 2025.
  3. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado. "Imputation of the Response Variable in Survival Analysis with Interval-Censored Data". Paper presented in Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2025 Workshops, Instambul, 2025.
    10.1007/978-3-031-97663-6_6
  4. Meira-Machado; Soutinho, Gustavo; Azevedo, Marta. "Estimation in a three-state model with interval-censored data". Paper presented in 18th International Joint Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE) and Computational and Methodological Statistics, 2024.
  5. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado. "Nonparametric estimation of the conditional bivariate distribution function of censored gap times". Paper presented in International Conference on Applied Mathematics & Computer Science (ICAMCS 2024), Veneza, 2024.
    10.1109/icamcs62774.2024.00037
  6. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado. "MSM.app: An Interactive Web Tool for Survival Analysis and Advanced Multi-State Modeling". Paper presented in 7th International Conference on Mathematics and Statistics (ICoMS 2024), Amarante, 2024.
  7. Lopes, Paula Rosa Silva; Campos, Pedro José Ramos Moreira de; Meira-Machado; Soutinho, Gustavo. "Survival Analysis of Organizational Network – An exploratory study". Paper presented in The International Conference on Computational Science and its Applications (ICCSA 2023), Atenas, 2023.
  8. Soutinho, Gustavo. "Assessment of the economic shocks on the times to the activity changes in the Portuguese firms. A comparative study by types of organizations and economic indicators". Paper presented in International Conference on Economics and Business Roads to Sustainability (ICEBRS 2023), Coimbra, 2023.
  9. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado. "Estimation of the transition probabilities conditional on covariates with repeated measures: A joint modeling approach". Paper presented in International Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics 2022 (ICNAAM 2022), Rodes, 2022.
    https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0211213
  10. Soutinho, Gustavo. "Assessing the utility of Google Trends as a Tool in Monitoring COVID-19". Paper presented in EUGLOHRIA Seeding Conference for Joint Pandemic Research, Lund, 2022.
  11. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado; Oliveira, Pedro. "Parametric Landmark estimation of the transition probabilities in survival data with multiple events". Paper presented in XXV Congresso da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística (SPE), 2021.
    10.37394/23206.2022.21.27
  12. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado; Oliveira, Pedro. "Parametric Landmark estimation of the transition probabilities in survival data with multiple events". Paper presented in 42nd Annual Conference of the International Society for Biostatistics (ISCB), Lyon, 2021.
  13. Soutinho, Gustavo Domingos Costa Coelho; Machado, Luís Meira; Oliveira, Pedro Nuno Ferreira Pinto. "A comparison of presmoothing methods in the estimation of transition probabilities". Paper presented in III Encontro Luso-Galaico de Biometria, Aveiro, 2018.
Conference paper
  1. Gustavo Soutinho; Lúis Meira-Machado; Artur Araujo. "Covariate significance testing in the conditional bivariate distribution function". 2026.
    10.1063/5.0328332
  2. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Conditional Bivariate Distribution Function of Censored Gap Times". 2024.
    10.1109/icamcs62774.2024.00037
  3. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "MSM.app: An Interactive Web Tool for Survival Analysis and Advanced Multi-State Modeling". 2024.
    10.1145/3686592.3686594
  4. Luís Meira-Machado; Gustavo Soutinho. "Presmoothed Estimators of the State Occupation Probabilities in Multi-state Survival Data". 2024.
    https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0210139
  5. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Estimation of the Transition Probabilities Conditional on Covariates with Repeated Measures: a Joint Modeling Approach". 2024.
    https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0211213
  6. Ferreira, Joana; Carneiro, Alexandre; Cunha, Pedro; Mansilha, Armando; Vila, Isabel; Cunha, Cidália Cristina Ferreira da; Silva, Cristina; et al. "Sarcopenia and atherosclerotic occlusive disease: how much we know and what we need to know about this association?". 2020.
    10.2991/artres.k.201209.072
  7. Soutinho, Gustavo Domingos Costa Coelho; Machado, Luís Meira; Oliveira, Pedro Nuno Ferreira Pinto. "Methods for checking the markov condition in multi-state survival data". 2019.
    10.1007/s00180-021-01139-7
  8. Soutinho, Gustavo Domingos Costa Coelho; Machado, Luís Meira; Oliveira, Pedro Nuno Ferreira Pinto. "Estimation of the transition probabilities condition on repeated measures in multi-state models". 2019.
  9. Lemos, Catarina; Soutinho, Gustavo; Braga, A. C.. "Arrow plot for selecting genes in a microarray experiment: An explorative study". 2017.
    10.1007/978-3-319-62395-5_39
Conference poster
  1. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado. "Nonparametric estimation of the conditional bivariate distribution function of censored gap times". Paper presented in 4th Portuguese Metting in Biomathematics, 2024.
  2. Soutinho, Gustavo. "Multi-state modeling of composite indexes on firm-level performance: insights from the Portuguese energy industry". Paper presented in XXVI congresso da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, 2023.
  3. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado. "markovMSM: An R package for checking the Markov condition in multi-state survival data". Paper presented in Open Day of Centre of Mathematics of the University of Minho, 2021.
    10.32614/RJ-2023-032
  4. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado; Oliveira, Pedro. "Estimation of the Transition Probabilities condition on repeated measures in Multi-state models". Paper presented in 35th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (IWSM), 2021.
Journal article
  1. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Imputation strategies for interval-censored data: from AFT models to machine learning and scaled redistribution". AIMS Mathematics (2026): http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/math.2026235.
    10.3934/math.2026235
  2. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Pre-Smoothing Methods for Transition Probabilities in Complex Non-Markovian Multistate Models". International Statistical Review (2025): https://doi.org/10.1111/insr.70002.
    10.1111/insr.70002
  3. João Barbosa-Martins; Joana Mendonça; Nuno Carvalho; Carolina Carvalho; Gustavo Soutinho; Helena Sarmento; Camila Coutinho; Jorge Cotter. "Development of a predictive score to discriminate community acquired pneumonia with underlying lung cancer: A retrospective case – control study". Respiratory Medicine (2024): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2024.107675.
    10.1016/j.rmed.2024.107675
  4. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Nonparametric estimation of the distribution of gap times for recurrent events". Statistical Methods & Applications (2023): https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-022-00641-6.
    10.1007/s10260-022-00641-6
  5. Ribeiro, V.M.; Soutinho, G.; Soares, I.. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers". Energies 16 4 (2023): http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85149186830&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
    10.3390/en16042029
  6. Soutinho, Gustavo; Meira-Machado, Luis. "markovMSM: An R Package for Checking the Markov Condition in Multi-State Survival Data". The R Journal (2023): https://publons.com/wos-op/publon/64965936/.
    10.32614/RJ-2023-032
  7. Soutinho, Gustavo; Ribeiro, Vitor Miguel; Soares, Isabel. "Dynamic correlation among title transfer facility natural gas, Brent oil and electricity EPEX spot markets: Spillover effects of economic shocks on returns and volatility". AIMS Energy (2023): https://publons.com/wos-op/publon/64965816/.
    10.3934/ENERGY.2023057
  8. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado; Pedro Oliveira. "A comparison of presmoothing methods in the estimation of transition probabilities". Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation (2022): https://doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2020.1762895.
    10.1080/03610918.2020.1762895
  9. "Parametric Landmark Estimation of the Transition Probabilities in Survival Data with Multiple Events". WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON MATHEMATICS 21 (2022): 207-217. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23206.2022.21.27.
    10.37394/23206.2022.21.27
  10. Gustavo Soutinho; Luís Meira-Machado. "Methods for checking the Markov condition in multi-state survival data". Computational Statistics 37 2 (2022): 751-780. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-021-01139-7.
    10.1007/s00180-021-01139-7
  11. Luís Meira-Machado; Carla Moreira; Gustavo Soutinho; Marta Azevedo. "Analysis of Survival Data with Multiple Events". WSEAS Transactions on Mathematics (2022): https://publons.com/wos-op/publon/62003340/.
    10.37394/23206.2022.21.97
  12. "survidm: An R package for Inference and Prediction in an Illness-Death Model". The R Journal (2021): https://journal.r-project.org/archive/2021/RJ-2021-070/index.html.
    10.32614/RJ-2021-070
  13. "Msm.App: A Web-Based Tool for the Analysis of Multi-State Survival Data". SSRN Electronic Journal (2021): http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3996850.
    10.2139/ssrn.3996850
  14. "Some of the Most Common Copulas for Simulating Complex Survival Data". International Journal of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 14 (2020): http://dx.doi.org/10.46300/9102.2020.14.5.
    10.46300/9102.2020.14.5
  15. "Estimation of the Transition Probabilities in Multi-state Survival Data: New Developments and Practical Recommendations". WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON MATHEMATICS 19 (2020): 353-366. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23206.2020.19.36.
    10.37394/23206.2020.19.36
Preprint
  1. "Analysis of Complex Survival Data: a tutorial using the Shiny MSM.app application". 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.09160.
Thesis / Dissertation
  1. Soutinho, Gustavo Domingos Costa Coelho. "Estimação do uso e ocupação do solo ao nível das NUTS 2 e NUTS 3". Master, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1822/34658.

Other

Other output
  1. Analysis of Complex Survival Data: a tutorial using the Shiny MSM.app application. 2022. Soutinho, G.; Meira-Machado, L.. http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85125767639&partnerID=MN8TOARS.
Activities

Association member

Society Organization name Role
2024/04 - Current Research on Economics, Management and Information Technologies (REMIT) - Portucalense University Integrated member
Distinctions

Award

2019 Prémio pelo trabalhado enviado para o XXV Congresso da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística através da atribuição de uma bolsa de participação
2013 Estágio no Instituto Nacional de Estatística